Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Prediction market trading on whether Russia will capture any part of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by 28 February 2026 shows volume heavily concentrated against a near-term Russian advance into the settlement. The market covers four deadline windows, with the May 2026 outcome among the thinner-backed options. Resolution depends on ISW map shading confirming Russian territorial control.

Market structure

The market offers four outcome windows tied to different deadline dates, with resolution triggered by ISW map shading showing Russian control over any part of Havrylivka (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E). Volume is broadly distributed across outcomes, with no single window drawing heavy concentration. The May 31 outcome is among the less heavily backed. A fallback to DeepStateMap or credible reporting applies if ISW becomes unavailable.

Background

Havrylivka is a settlement in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, situated in a sector of southern Ukraine where Russian forces have been conducting incremental offensive operations along the broader Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk front. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has not seen the same scale of Russian territorial gains as neighbouring Donetsk Oblast, but frontline pressure in adjacent areas has drawn increased analytical attention. The Institute for the Study of War tracks daily positional changes across Ukraine's front lines, and its mapping has become a standard reference for prediction market resolution in Ukraine-related contracts. This market was created against the backdrop of ongoing negotiations and battlefield activity that has made near-term territorial changes difficult to forecast with confidence.

Key factors

The primary structural factor is the pace of Russian ground operations in the Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk border zone. Advances in nearby settlements such as Velyka Novosilka or areas along the Mokri Yaly River corridor could create conditions for pressure towards Havrylivka, or alternatively indicate that Russian operational focus lies elsewhere. Ukrainian defensive capacity, including reinforcement timelines and fortification depth around the settlement, would shape the feasibility of any Russian infiltration. Ceasefire or negotiated settlement discussions could alter the resolution pathway: actual control established under a negotiated arrangement qualifies as Yes even without ISW shading, but a de jure announcement alone does not. Seasonal conditions, including ground hardness affecting armoured mobility, may influence the tempo of operations ahead of the February and later deadlines. ISW map update continuity is also a technical dependency; shading must persist through a full daily update cycle to qualify.

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