Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

The prediction market on whether Donald Trump will be impeached by the end of 2026 shows volume heavily concentrated on a 'No' outcome, with impeachment remaining a minority position among traders. Resolution requires only a simple majority House vote to pass articles of impeachment — not a Senate trial or removal from office — before 31 December 2026. The primary resolution source is official federal government records, supported by credible reporting.

Market structure

This is a binary Yes/No market. The 'Yes' outcome requires the House of Representatives to pass one or more articles of impeachment by simple majority vote between 24 July 2025 and 31 December 2026. Senate conviction and removal from office are explicitly not required. Volume is heavily concentrated on 'No'. Resolution draws on official federal government sources, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback.

Background

Impeachment is the constitutional mechanism by which the House of Representatives charges a sitting president with 'high crimes and misdemeanours'. Donald Trump holds the distinction of being the only US president impeached twice — in December 2019 over the Ukraine affair, and in January 2021 following the Capitol riot. On both occasions the Senate acquitted him. Trump returned to the presidency in January 2025. Republicans currently control the House, meaning any impeachment push would require a significant political realignment or a dramatic triggering event to attract majority support from members of the president's own party.

Key factors

The most significant structural factor is House composition. Republicans hold the majority, and impeachment of a sitting Republican president would require either a shift in party control or a sufficient number of Republican defections — an historically rare occurrence. The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November, represent a potential pivot point: if Democrats were to win a House majority, the political arithmetic would change substantially, though any newly seated Congress would not convene until January 2027, after the resolution deadline. Independent of electoral outcomes, a high-profile scandal, criminal finding, or constitutional crisis could alter the calculus for individual members. The resolution criteria are narrow: only a formal House floor vote passing articles of impeachment counts. Committee inquiries, censure resolutions, or Senate actions do not satisfy the criteria.

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