Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Prediction market trading on whether Donald Trump will resign the presidency by 31 December 2026 is heavily concentrated on a 'No' outcome, with resignation representing a small fraction of total volume. The market resolves 'Yes' only if Trump formally announces a resignation or intent to resign before the deadline; removal by other means triggers an immediate 'No' resolution. Resolution draws on official US federal government sources and credible reporting.

Market structure

The market has two effective outcomes — resignation announced or not — with volume heavily skewed toward no resignation occurring. Resolution requires a public announcement of resignation or intent to resign by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If Trump is removed from office by other means before any such announcement, the market resolves immediately to 'No'. The primary resolution source is official US federal government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.

Background

No sitting US president has ever resigned except Richard Nixon, who did so in August 1974 under the pressure of the Watergate scandal and near-certain impeachment. Trump is serving his second, non-consecutive term having returned to the White House in January 2025. Presidential resignations are historically rare events and require either an extraordinary political crisis or a voluntary decision by the incumbent. Trump has given no public indication of any intent to leave office early, and the Republican Party currently holds majorities in both chambers of Congress, reducing the immediate threat of a successful impeachment proceeding that might otherwise create political pressure.

Key factors

Several structural factors would bear on whether this market could resolve 'Yes'. A resignation would most plausibly arise from an escalating political or legal crisis of sufficient severity to make continuation in office untenable — a threshold historically very high for any president. The composition of Congress matters: a shift in the balance of power, whether through special elections or the 2026 midterms, could alter the political calculus around impeachment and resignation. Health factors, while not a matter of public record, are a standard consideration for any long-dated political market. The resolution criteria also contain a notable nuance: only an announcement of resignation is required, not the completion of a formal resignation process — meaning the market could resolve 'Yes' on a declared intent even if later rescinded or complicated. Conversely, removal via the 25th Amendment or successful impeachment conviction would resolve the market 'No' without any resignation announcement.

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