xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
Resolves Jun 30, 2026·$2 24h vol·tech
2 comments·$21.0k total volume·Open for 124 days
25%+
40%-7.0%
OutcomeYesNo1W24h Vol
-6.0%
$2
-13.5%
—
-7.0%
—
-3.5%
—
Order Book
25%+
PriceSharesTotal
82.0¢115$95
73.0¢128$94
72.0¢45$33
70.0¢80$56
69.0¢207$143
65.0¢464$302
62.0¢6$4
61.0¢21$13
49.0¢20$10
48.0¢11$5
52.0¢last trade
16.0¢ spread32.0¢30$10
31.0¢100$31
30.0¢145$44
29.0¢482$140
27.0¢17$5
25.0¢20$5
23.0¢35$8
1.0¢100$1
$242 bids$753 asks
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by FJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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