2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

What you need to know

This market is asking: which political party will win the most local leadership races across Taiwan in the November 2026 elections? Taiwan has 22 local governments listed here — cities, special municipalities, and counties — each with a mayor or magistrate election. Whichever party gets the most of those 22 wins takes the market. Think of it like a scoreboard: KMT wins Taipei, DPP wins Kaohsiung, and so on — the party with the highest total at the end resolves this Yes. After election day on November 28, 2026, the market settles for whichever party wins the most of the 22 listed races. The official source is Taiwan's Central Election Commission. One notable edge case: independent candidates don't count toward any party's tally. Another: if two parties tie on seat count, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order — which would favor DPP over KMT. Results must be available by June 30, 2027, or the market uses whatever is known by then. None of the provided news headlines relate to Taiwan or these elections — they all concern an unrelated event in Belfast. There is no relevant recent news to draw on here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be party approval ratings in Taiwan, candidate nominations, and any major political events affecting public sentiment toward KMT or DPP before November 2026. The market prices KMT at around 82%, so it is heavily one-sided — the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected shifts the outcome. That said, real risks exist: local elections in Taiwan can turn on local issues and individual candidates, not just national party strength. Incumbency, scandals, and cross-strait tensions can all move results unpredictably. With five months still to go before election day, there is meaningful time for the political landscape to change.

The odds right now

• Kuomintang (KMT)+1.5 pts (1w)82%
• Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)+1.0 pts (1w)20%
• Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 28, 2026

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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