Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a narrow waterway between Yemen and East Africa that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — becomes nearly shut down to ship traffic by a specific date. In normal times, dozens of ships pass through daily. A 'Yes' means traffic drops to a trickle: an average of 10 or fewer ship arrivals per day over a 7-day window, which would mean the strait is effectively unusable for global shipping. A 'No' means traffic stays above that floor. The market settles 'Yes' the moment the IMF's PortWatch tool — a public shipping-data tracker — records a 7-day average of 10 or fewer ship arrivals at the strait for any single day within the timeframe. That threshold is the key: not just one quiet day, but a sustained near-shutdown averaged across a week. There are three separate deadlines with their own odds (June 22, June 30, and September 30, 2026). Each one resolves 'No' if the data never hits that level by its date. One important edge case: if IMF PortWatch stops publishing data, the market uses whatever was last published. The most directly relevant headline is a report from June 10, 2026, describing an exchange of attacks between the US and Iran, including a helicopter incident. This matters because the Houthi movement in Yemen — which has been the primary force behind past disruptions in this strait — is closely tied to Iran. Escalating US-Iran tensions could affect Houthi activity in the region, which in turn affects shipping. The other two headlines (Nevada politics and Singapore tech salaries) have no meaningful connection to this market. The core difficulty is that this depends on an unpredictable conflict. Houthi attacks on shipping previously drove traffic down sharply, but a full closure to 10 ships or fewer per day is an extreme threshold — far below even the disrupted levels seen during past Red Sea crises. The recent US-Iran exchange adds real volatility, but whether that escalates, de-escalates, or leads to a ceasefire is genuinely unknown. The market prices this between 9% and 28% depending on the deadline, suggesting participants see it as unlikely but not impossible — primarily because the unexpected is always possible in active conflict zones.

The odds right now

• September 30+7.0 pts (1w)26%
• June 30+3.5 pts (1w)11%
• June 227%
• June 153%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

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