Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking: when will Google publicly release its next AI model with 'Pro' in the name? Google's Gemini lineup has tiers — Flash models are faster and cheaper, while Pro models are the more powerful, full-featured versions. The question isn't whether Google will release one at all, but how soon. Three separate deadline bets exist: June 26, June 30, and July 31, 2026 — each one asking if the release happens before that specific date. A new Gemini Pro model settles this as Yes the moment Google makes it openly available to anyone — through a public launch, open beta, or open waitlist. The model must carry a 'Pro' label (like Gemini 3.5 Pro or 4.0 Pro); Flash, Flash-Lite, or other variants don't count. Private or closed-beta access doesn't count either. Google's own official announcements and website are the primary source of truth, backed by credible press coverage. A placeholder name on a website with no actual access also doesn't qualify. None of the provided news stories are directly relevant to a Gemini Pro release. The German court ruling about Google AI search errors is about legal liability, not a new model launch. There's nothing here to signal a release is imminent or delayed. The kind of news that would matter: a Google blog post, an announcement at a Google event like Google I/O, or credible tech reporting that a new Pro model is live for public access. The main uncertainty is timing, not whether it happens — the July 31 deadline sits at 97%, meaning the market is very confident a release comes before then, just not exactly when. The real question is whether it lands before June 26 (58%) or June 30 (87%). Google controls its own release schedule, and AI model launches can slip by days or weeks without warning. There's also a subtle criteria question: if Google releases something labeled 'Pro Preview' or upgrades an existing preview to GA, it may or may not qualify depending on how it's labeled and announced.

The odds right now

• July 31+4.3 pts (1w)97%
• June 30+9.0 pts (1w)87%
• June 26-6.0 pts (1w)57%
• June 19-25.5 pts (1w)14%
• June 12-7.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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