Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

What you need to know

This market asks who will physically sign a formal written agreement between the US and Iran — not just whether a deal happens, but whose name ends up on it. There are three separate yes/no questions running at once: one for Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, one for Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and one for the UAE's leader Mohamed bin Zayed. Crucially, a person doesn't have to sign on behalf of the US or Iran — they could sign as a witness, a guarantor, or on behalf of a third country that's part of the same agreement. Each market settles Yes if that specific person signs a written agreement that both the US and Iran are officially parties to, before July 31, 2026 ends. The person must sign in an official role — not as a private individual. The agreement itself doesn't require US or Iranian representatives to also sign it, which is an unusual detail: a deal could be formally joined by both countries without their own officials putting pen to paper on the same document. Official government statements or strong consensus from credible news outlets would be used to confirm it. The most significant recent development is that Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly stated that the US and Iran have agreed on the wording of a deal — which directly explains why his name appears in this market, as a potential mediating signatory. However, the same news cycle also included US military strikes and Iranian retaliation, with President Trump warning of consequences over stalled talks. These two signals — a reported agreement on text and active military exchanges — are happening at the same time, which makes the situation unusually hard to read. The core tension here is that the news is pointing in two opposite directions at once: a reported breakthrough on deal language and simultaneous military strikes between the two countries. It's genuinely unclear whether diplomacy or escalation is winning right now. Beyond that, the criteria are broad — a deal could be signed by a mediator, not just the main parties — which creates real uncertainty about who ends up signing what. The odds for all three individuals are clustered between 43% and 54%, reflecting that the market itself sees no clear frontrunner.

The odds right now

• Abbas Araghchi54%
• JD Vance47%
• Shehbaz Sharif42%
• Donald Trump38%
• Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan31%
• Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa21%
• Masoud Pezeshkian19%
• King Abdullah II15%
• Marco Rubio13%
• Recep Tayyip Erdogan12%
• Abdel Fattah el-Sisi12%
• Mohammed bin Salman12%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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