GDP growth in 2026

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

This prediction market asks what the full-year real GDP growth rate for the United States will be in 2026, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate for Q4 2026. Volume is most heavily concentrated on the highest bracket, above 2.5%, with a secondary cluster in the 1.5–2.5% range. Resolution depends on the BEA's initial Advance Estimate release, expected in January 2027.

Market structure

The market spans six outcome brackets covering growth below 0.5% through above 2.5%. Volume is heavily concentrated on the top bracket, above 2.5%, with meaningful weight also spread across the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets. The lower end of the distribution — below 1.0% — attracts comparatively little volume. Resolution uses only the BEA Advance Estimate for Q4 2026, with subsequent revisions disregarded. The resolution deadline is 29 January 2027.

Background

US real GDP growth is one of the most closely watched macroeconomic indicators globally, serving as a benchmark for the health of the world's largest economy. The BEA publishes GDP data in successive estimates — Advance, Second, and Third — with the Advance Estimate arriving roughly four weeks after each quarter closes. For annual resolution purposes, the relevant figure is the percentage change in the annual level of real GDP from 2025 to 2026. The 2026 outlook has been shaped by ongoing debates around Federal Reserve monetary policy, the trajectory of inflation, fiscal dynamics including federal spending and taxation, and the effects of trade policy shifts introduced in 2025. The US economy entered 2026 having sustained a prolonged period of above-trend growth, but with increasing uncertainty around the policy environment and global demand conditions.

Key factors

Several structural forces could push the 2026 annual GDP figure toward different brackets. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions throughout 2026 will influence business investment, consumer borrowing, and housing activity — tighter policy tends to dampen growth while easing supports it. Trade policy, including tariff levels and bilateral agreements negotiated or unwound during 2025–26, affects net exports and supply-chain costs for US manufacturers. Labour market conditions — particularly employment growth and wage trends — feed directly into consumer spending, the largest component of GDP. Fiscal policy, including the path of federal expenditure and any tax legislation enacted, adds or subtracts from aggregate demand. External shocks such as commodity price swings, geopolitical disruptions, or a slowdown in major trading partners could influence the outcome. Finally, the base effect matters: the 2025 annual GDP level determines the denominator against which 2026 growth is measured, so any late revision to 2025 data before the Advance Estimate is published could shift the reported rate.

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