How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·$91 24h vol·economy

3 comments·$220.1k total volume·Open for 241 days

3.9%

31%-15.7%

OutcomeYesNo1W24h Vol

3.9%

-3.5%

—

3.8%

-3.0%

—

3.7%

—

3.6%

+2.0%

—

3.5%

—

$12

2.0%

-1.0%

—

3.0%

-1.5%

—

1.0%

-0.9%

$79

Order Book

3.9%

PriceSharesTotal

74.9¢762$571

72.9¢828$604

69.4¢172$119

69.0¢719$496

64.0¢250$160

60.3¢100$60

54.8¢148$81

53.8¢100$54

50.0¢40$20

34.9¢2.1k$740

—

7.9¢ spread

27.0¢7$2

15.4¢131$20

15.3¢107$16

12.5¢185$23

1.3¢12$0

1.2¢13$0

0.5¢123$1

0.4¢200$1

0.3¢34.4k$103

0.2¢2.7k$5

$172 bids$2.9k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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