US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

US GDP growth in Q2 2026 is being tracked across seven outcome brackets in a prediction market resolving on 30 July 2026, based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate. Market volume is broadly distributed across several mid-range brackets, with the heaviest concentration in the 2.0–2.5%, 3.0–3.5%, and 2.5–3.0% bands. Resolution uses the official BEA seasonally adjusted annualised rate published that date.

Market structure

Seven outcome brackets span sub-1.0% contraction territory through 3.5% and above. Volume is broadly distributed across the mid-range, with no single bracket commanding dominant share. The three brackets covering 2.0–3.5% collectively attract the largest portion of activity. Resolution is based solely on the BEA Advance Estimate for Q2 2026, published 30 July 2026. Where a result falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket.

Background

US GDP growth has been subject to considerable uncertainty in 2025 and into 2026, as the Federal Reserve's extended tightening cycle, shifting trade policy, and uneven consumer spending have created an unpredictable growth environment. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes GDP estimates in a sequence of releases — Advance, Second, and Third — with the Advance Estimate typically arriving around four weeks after a quarter closes. Q2 2026 covers April through June 2026, a period in which fiscal policy signals, labour market conditions, and global demand trends will all have had time to feed through into measured output. The BEA's seasonally adjusted annualised rate is the standard benchmark cited in US economic reporting and policy deliberation.

Key factors

Several structural forces could push the Q2 2026 figure in either direction. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions ahead of and during Q2 will influence business investment and housing activity; any pivot toward easing could support growth, while a prolonged hold may continue to restrain credit-sensitive sectors. Consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of US GDP, is sensitive to labour market conditions, real wage growth, and household debt levels. Federal fiscal policy — including any changes to government expenditure or taxation enacted in the preceding months — feeds directly into the GDP calculation. Trade balances matter as well, since net exports contribute positively or negatively depending on global demand and exchange rate dynamics. Inventory cycles can cause significant quarter-to-quarter volatility in the headline annualised figure. Finally, statistical quirks in seasonal adjustment can affect the Advance Estimate specifically, sometimes diverging from the later revised figures that this market explicitly excludes.

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