Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

This multi-country prediction market asks which nations will record a confirmed Ebola case by the end of 2026. Volume is broadly distributed across all 13 tracked countries, with no single outcome dominating — the Republic of the Congo and South Sudan are among the heaviest-backed for a 'Yes' resolution. The market resolves to 'Yes' for any country where a laboratory-confirmed or officially confirmed Ebola infection is reported within its territory before 31 December 2026, based on official national and international health authority declarations.

Market structure

The market covers 13 countries across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Africa, and North America, each resolving independently as 'Yes' or 'No'. Volume is broadly distributed, reflecting genuine uncertainty across the field rather than concentration on a single outcome. Resolution requires a confirmed Ebola case reported within a country's territory by 31 December 2026, with national and international health authorities as primary sources, supplemented by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

Background

Ebola virus disease has caused recurring outbreaks predominantly in Central and West Africa since its identification in 1976, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo experiencing the most frequent and sustained transmission in recent decades. The Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Kenya all border or neighbour historically affected zones, making cross-border transmission a persistent concern. The 2022–2023 Uganda outbreak and the DRC's numerous episodes have repeatedly prompted international preparedness alerts. High-income countries such as the United States and Canada have managed imported cases during previous outbreaks, most notably during the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic. India and China, as major international travel hubs with significant Africa-linked migration and commerce, are also tracked given their potential exposure through international movement.

Key factors

Geographic proximity to the DRC, which experiences near-continuous Ebola activity, is a primary structural factor for Central and East African nations including the Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Burundi, Rwanda, and Kenya. Cross-border population movement, including refugee flows and informal trade, amplifies transmission risk in areas with limited surveillance infrastructure. For countries such as the United States, Canada, India, and China, the key variable is international air travel: imported cases have occurred historically when travellers depart affected regions before symptom onset. The robustness of port-of-entry screening, healthcare worker preparedness, and contact-tracing capacity all influence whether an imported case is detected and contained before onward transmission. For African nations, domestic surveillance capacity, healthcare system strength, and vaccination coverage with rVSV-ZEBOV — authorised for use in outbreak response — will bear on both detection and containment. Seasonal factors, humanitarian crises, and conflict-driven displacement in Somalia, South Sudan, and Ethiopia could affect both outbreak probability and detection rates.

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