Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets are tracking which of the two leading AI companies — Anthropic or OpenAI — will complete an IPO first, with a deadline of 31 December 2027. Neither company has yet listed publicly. The market currently shows volume too thin to indicate a clear frontrunner, and resolves 50-50 if neither completes an IPO within the window.

Market structure

The market offers two named outcomes — Anthropic IPOs first, or OpenAI IPOs first — plus a 50-50 fallback if neither lists by 31 December 2027, both list on the same calendar date, or both become unable to list due to acquisition or absorption by an already-public entity. Resolution is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting and official company announcements. Current trading volume is insufficient to show meaningful concentration on either outcome.

Background

Both Anthropic and OpenAI occupy the uppermost tier of the generative AI industry and have attracted billions in investment from major technology and financial backers. OpenAI, founded in 2015, converted to a capped-profit structure and has been undertaking a broader corporate restructuring that has drawn significant public and regulatory attention. Anthropic, founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers, has secured large strategic investments and operates under a public-benefit corporation model. Neither company had completed a public listing as of mid-2025. The race to IPO carries major implications for employee compensation, investor liquidity, and the broader capital market narrative around artificial intelligence.

Key factors

OpenAI's ongoing restructuring from a capped-profit model towards a more conventional for-profit corporation is a prerequisite condition that must be resolved before any IPO process could proceed; regulatory or shareholder complications could delay or block that transition. Anthropic's public-benefit corporation structure presents its own governance questions that underwriters and regulators would need to assess. Broader market conditions — interest rate environment, technology sector valuations, and appetite for high-growth unprofitable companies — will influence the timing and attractiveness of any listing for either firm. Regulatory scrutiny of large AI companies by competition authorities in the United States and European Union could introduce procedural delays. Strategic investment relationships, particularly with Microsoft (OpenAI) and Amazon and Google (Anthropic), may shape how each company approaches public capital markets, including whether existing investors seek liquidity through an IPO or prefer private structures. Any acquisition of either company by an already-public entity before listing would trigger the 50-50 fallback.

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