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Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·$103 24h vol·crypto
13 comments·$191.8k total volume·Open for 228 days

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

5%-0.2%
OutcomeYesNo
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Order Book

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

PriceSharesTotal
6.2¢257$16
6.0¢220$13
5.9¢40$2
5.8¢206$12
5.6¢257$14
5.4¢232$13
5.2¢311$16
5.1¢1.0k$52
5.0¢954$48
4.9¢323$16
4.9¢last trade
0.1¢ spread
4.8¢160$8
4.7¢66$3
4.6¢507$23
4.5¢250$11
4.4¢257$11
2.6¢38$1
2.3¢386$9
2.2¢276$6
2.0¢1.0k$20
1.9¢730$14
$106 bids$202 asks

Resolution Criteria

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

5%